Conflict and climate shocks continue to be the primary drivers of acute food insecurity: World Bank

Global food and nutrition insecurity is increasing despite broadly stable supplies of major staples. Since the last update in March, agricultural and cereal price indices have risen by 3 and 4 percent, respectively. Conflict and climate shocks continue to be the primary drivers of acute food insecurity. Up to 67 million people in need of food assistance in East and Southern Africa, with 14 localities considered at risk of famine in Sudan, and nearly 52.9 million people are projected to be acutely food insecure in West and Central Africa during the June to August 2026 lean season. The Middle East conflict is increasing risks to food security. Disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz drove a 46 percent month-on-month rise in urea prices and increased agricultural price indices by 8 percent, raising the risk of an affordability crisis. The World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook projects that fertilizer prices will rise by 31 percent on average in 2026, reaching their least affordable levels since 2022. A 61 to 87 percent probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and continuing into 2027 could make the situation worse by threatening crop production in South Asia, Southern Africa, and...