This time of the year we often hear about drought. To many of us this seems like an annual event and we come across it only at a particular time of the year – mostly between August to October, the official Monsoon period is June 1-September 30. This year too there were reports in mainstream media on a likelihood of drought, even as government agencies deny this. A careful analysis will reveal that drought is a complex issue and since it can have serious implications, it may not always be easy to determine and declare droughts.
In either case, we must get ready for the future, as the pattern of weather does not seem too consistent.
The Indian Meteorological Agency (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences provides real data - undertakes scientific and meteorological observations including forecasts and reports on monsoons. That the agency is doing a sterling job is evident from the fact 10th year in a row this year, IMD’s prediction on onset of monsoon over Kerala was correct. Drought is typically declared by Ministry of Agriculture in consultation with Ministry of Water Resources, after taking numerous factors into consideration. The state governments too play a key role in this – they write to the Central government asking for assistance for drought prone areas. Recently, the Uttar Pradesh and Haryana governments have written to the Agriculture Ministry asking for financial assistance for drought affected areas.
Droughts are of three kinds – hydrological, meteorological and agricultural. A private agency SkyMet says, this year could be a moderate meteorological drought. This is a situation of prolonged period with less than average precipitation and usually preceded by other kinds of drought.
Look at the 2014 Southwest Monsoon End of Season Report of IMD and you tend to believe things are not that bad as some might want us believe. “For the country as a whole, the rainfall for the season (June-September) was 88% of its long period average (LPA). Seasonal rainfall was 79% of its LPA over Northwest India, 90% of its LPA over Central India, 93% of its LPA over south Peninsula and 88% of its LPA over Northeast (NE) India. Out of the total 36 meteorological subdivisions, 23 subdivisions constituting 67% of the total area of the country received normal season rainfall and 12 subdivisions (30% of the total area of the country) received deficient season rainfall. One subdivision (South Interior Karnataka) constituting 3% of the total area of the country received excess rainfall,” it says. According to IMD Director General Laxman Singh Rathore, about 70% of the country has received normal rainfall and hence it would be inappropriate to call it a drought year.
Little surprise, Ministry of Agriculture is reluctant to announce drought. A senior ministry official was quoted as saying that there was no chance of an agricultural drought as rains were good in most parts of the country, barring northwest India. “Northwest India is mostly an irrigated agricultural region. Even if the rains failed, irrigation sources compensated for the event. The crops, especially paddy, were watered both in the sowing and the later period,” the official had said.
According to the Central Water Commission, the country's 85 reservoirs, which are crucial for irrigation, were filled with 155.046 billion cubic metres (BCM) of water. This is about 78% of their total live storage capacity of 253.388 BCM and is said to be lower than the level of last year. Still however, the situation is not grim.
While it would be prudent to go with government’s assessment and confirm that we are not in a drought situation yet, we must be prepared for the future. Even as the government makes efforts, all stakeholders including international donor agencies, development groups, farmer organizations and state governments must be aware of the challenges that droughts pose and ways to tackle it. Among others, some well known solutions include construction of dams, desalination of sea water for irrigation or consumption, continuous observation of rainfall levels and comparisons with current usage levels can help prevent man-made drought, carefully planned crop rotation to minimize erosion and allow farmers to plant less water-dependent crops in drier years, outdoor water-use restriction, rainwater harvesting, recycling , transvasement or building canals or redirecting rivers as massive attempts at irrigation in drought-prone areas, use crop rotaton, adopt high-variety drought-tolerant seeds and GM seeds.
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14 Nov 2024