This shift is expected to bring significant financial benefits for farmers by reducing production costs and increasing market value for high-quality, chemical-free produce. The income gap between farmers and non-farmers, currently at 62%, is projected to shrink dramatically to 22% under natural farming- almost halving the disparity seen in industrial agriculture, where the gap stands at 47%. In addition to economic advantages, natural farming is poised to outperform industrial agriculture in plant food production, delivering 5,008 kcal/day per capita by 2050, a 20% increase compared to the industrial agricultural model. This method also addresses pressing environmental challenges, including reversing land degradation, combating desertification, and restoring damaged soils, ecosystems, and fallow lands. These findings are part of the 'Rethinking Food Systems in Andhra Pradesh - How Natural Farming Could Feed the Future' report, conducted under the AgroEco2050 foresight study. The research was a collaborative effort by Rythu Sadhikara Samstha (RSS) of the Andhra Pradesh department of agriculture, the French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The Andhra Pradesh community-managed natural farming (APCNF) programme, spearheaded by Rythu Sadhikara Samstha (RSS), is a state-wide initiative aimed at transitioning 6 million farmers from conventional chemical-based farming to natural farming by 2031, covering 8 million hectares of farmland. APCNF emphasises farming in harmony with nature, advocating that nature holds solutions to many human-induced challenges in agriculture and the food sector. Positioned as an alternative to conventional agricultural practices, APCNF reported significant progress as of Oct 2023. The programme is active in 3,730 villages across all 26 districts of Andhra Pradesh, with 8.5 lakh farmers enrolled. Of these, 90% are small and marginal farmers, collectively managing 2.78 lakh hectares of farmland.
The study compares two contrasting futures for 2050. The 'industrial agriculture scenario' envisions a consumerism-driven society dependent on capital-intensive technology, fossil fuels, and robotics, favouring large-scale farming with fewer farmers. By contrast, the 'natural farming scenario' aligns with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), promoting income equality, moderate urbanisation, and diversified, chemical-free food production. It emphasises local markets, blends scientific and indigenous knowledge, and fosters community-managed farming that creates employment across agriculture and small-scale industries.
A direct comparison between the two models reveals stark differences in employment, productivity, and sustainability. While both scenarios share the same projected population (59.5 million) and labour force (35.4 million), natural farming achieves a significantly lower unemployment rate of 2.4%, compared to 10.6% under industrial agriculture. Natural farming also employs 33 million people, including 10 million farmers, far surpassing the 24.8 million employed in industrial agriculture, where non-farm jobs dominate.
Moreover, natural farming utilises more cropland-8.3 million hectares versus 5.5 million under industrial agriculture-while maintaining smaller farm sizes per farmer (0.83 ha compared to 1.11 ha). This model generates a higher gross value added of Rs 42.7×102 crores, surpassing industrial agriculture's Rs 36.9×102 crores. Crucially, it also narrows the income gap between farmers and non- farmers to just 22% (Rs 668 per day), compared to a substantial 47% (Rs 1,392) under industrial agriculture.
Natural farming is also anticipated to address land use constraints and combat desertification by regenerating degraded soils, restoring ecosystems, and bringing fallow lands back into productive use.
Source: Times of India